Olena Liubovets
Doctor of History, Full Professor of the Department of International Relations and Social Sciences, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine; ORCID: 0000-0001-7115-4937
DOI:
Abstract. The article explores the dynamics of diplomatic negotiations between Ukraine, the leading world powers, and the russian federation throughout 2021 and early 2022, in the context of amassing troops on the border with Ukraine and looming threats of a renewed russian military aggression. Based on a broad range of official statements, media reports, and retrospective assessments, the article reconstructs the complex architecture of bilateral and multilateral efforts to de-escalate the crisis and prevent a full-scale war. The author examines high-level meetings and phone conversations between vladimir putin and world leaders including US President Josef Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and President of Turkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Special attention is paid to Macron’s active shuttle diplomacy, as well the role of the Normandy Format and the Minsk Agreements. The article also discusses the launch of the Crimean Platform and Ukraine’s attempts to strengthen its international support in 2021. Meanwhile, in December 2021, the russian MFA presented an ultimatum-like proposal to the United States and NATO, demanding unrealistic security guarantees and the rollback of NATO’s presence in Eastern and Central Europe. The failure of russia to receive the desired concessions contributed to the collapse of the negotiation process. Ukraine’s own diplomatic efforts, including President Zelenskyy’s proposal of a 10-step implementation plan for the Minsk agreements, are also highlighted. The author concludes that the main reason for the diplomatic breakdown was the kremlin’s ultimate strategic goal — to reshape the post-Cold War international security architecture and establish russia as a peer power to the United States. This irreconcilable ambition rendered peaceful resolution attempts futile and paved the way for the large-scale invasion on 24 February 2022.
Keywords: diplomacy, Ukrainian diplomacy, diplomatic negotiations, full-scale russian invasion of Ukraine, russian-Ukrainian war.
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