Andrii Hrubinko
Doctor of History, Full Professor, Department of Theory and History of State and Law, West Ukrainian National University
ORCID 0000-0002-4856-5831
DOI 10.37837//2707-7683-2020-41
Abstract. The article presents the research findings on a set of challenges and threats to the national and international order that have arisen as a result of Brexit. As far as the author is concerned, Brexit has not only a significant conflict-generating impact on British realities but also causes tremendous challenges and threats to international security. The means of preventing and addressing these challenges are far from obvious and are yet to be fully developed. Most of the challenges, just like the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, have a negative impact on Ukraine’s international status and prospects in the global arena, particularly with regard to European integration and counter the Russian aggression.
The regional, or all-European, implications of Brexit are manifested in rising Euroskepticism, pervasive disintegration (nationalist) sentiments in EU member states, heavy image losses of European integration in general and the EU in particular as its principal outcome, weakened abilities of the EU in the strategically important sphere of foreign and security policy, the slowdown in the fundamental process of EU enlargement, and a significant realignment of political forces in the union. The global implications of Brexit consist in the EU’s weakened international standing, the enhanced process of reviewing EU-US relations, a new, almost unprecedented, technological level of information propaganda, and a rapprochement of the EU and Russia.
The historical and modern trends analysed permit a preliminary conclusion on who will ultimately benefit most from the completion of Brexit and the UK’s permanent withdrawal from the EU, which has become a part of the regional and global struggle for influence in international relations.
Keywords: Brexit, Great Britain, European Union, European integration, conflict-generating potential, international relations.
References
1. Oliver, T. (2016). A European Union without the United Kingdom. The geopolitics of a British exit from the EU. LSE Ideas, Strategic update 16.1. February. [in English]
2. Wilson, P., Oliver, T. (2019). The international consequences of Brexit: an English School analysis. Journal of European Integration, Volume 41, Issue 8, pp. 1009-1025. [in English] DOI 10.1080/07036337.2019.1665656
3. Scott, L., Laible, J. (eds.). (2020). The European Union after Brexit. Manchester: Manchester University Press. [in English]
4. Whitman, R. (2016). The UK and EU Foreign, Security and Defense Policy after Brexit: Integrated, Associated or Detached? National Institute Economic Review, Volume 238, pp. 43-50. [in English] DOI 10.1177/002795011623800114
5. Johnston, S. (2016). The EU’s CSDP: an (objective) UK perspective. European Geostrategy, 27 March [online]. Available at: http://www.europeangeostrategy.org/?s=UK [in English]
6. Black, J. et al. (2017). Defense and security after Brexit. Understanding the possible implications of the UK’s decision to leave the EU Compendium report. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation. [in English] DOI 10.7249/RR1786.1
7. Oliver, T., Williams, M. (2016). Special relationships in flux: Brexit and the future of the US-EU and US-UK relationships. International Affairs, Volume 92, Issue 3, pp. 547-567. [in English] DOI 10.1111/1468-2346.12606
8. Rees, W. (2017). America, Brexit and the security of Europe. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Volume 19 (3), pp. 558-572. [in English]
9. Haas, R. (2019). Rozkhytanyi svit. Zovnishnia polityka Ameryky i kryza staroho ladu [A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order]. Kyiv: Osnovy, 376 p. [in Ukrainian]
10. Chalmers, M. (2017). UK Foreign and Security Policy after Brexit. RUSI, Briefing Paper. January 2017. [in English]
11. Oliver, T., Walshe, G. (2020). Making a More European Britain. The Political, Economic and Societal Impacts of Brexit. Brussels: Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies. [in English] DOI 10.1177/1781685820920123
12. Gromyko, A., Ananyeva, E. (eds). (2014). Dilemmy Britanii: poisk putey razvitiya [Dilemmas of Britain: Searching for Ways of Development]. Moscow: Ves Mir. [in Russian]
13. Lazareva, E., Bersteneva, A. (2018). Velikobritaniya v ES: vstupleniye, otstupleniye, Breksit [Britain in the EU: Accession, Retreat, Brexit]. Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, Issue 435, pp. 127-134. [in Russian] DOI 10.17223/15617793/435/16
14. Tsivatyi, V., Chekalenko, L. (2016). Vtecha ‘troianskoho konia’ [Escape of the ‘Trojan Horse’]. Zovnishni spravy, Issue 7, pp. 17-21. [in Ukrainian]
15. Rudko, S. (2018). Pytannia irlandskoho kordonu na pershomu etapi Brexit [The Irish border at the First Stage of Brexit]. Politychne zhyttia, Issue 2, pp. 140-145. [in Ukrainian]
16. Hrubinko, A. (2017). Velyka Brytaniia v systemi yevropeiskoi zovnishnoi i bezpekovoi polityky (1990–2016 rr.) [Great Britain in the System of European Foreign and Security Policy (1990–2016)]. Ternopil: Osadtsa Yu.V. [in Ukrainian]
Kyzym, A. (2020). The Opportunities of a British Exit for Ukraine, 16 January [online]. Available at: https://www.promoteukraine.org/the-opportunities-of-a-british-exit-for-ukraine [Accessed 8 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
17. ‘Brexit – naibilsha zovnishnopolitychna pomylka v pisliavoiennii istorii, – eksspiker parlamentu Brytanii Berkov’ (2019). Censor.net, 7 November [online]. Available at: https://m.censor.net.ua/ua/news/3158282/brexit_nayibilsha_ zovnishnopolitychna_pomylka_v_pislyavoyenniyi_istoriyi_eksspiker_parlamentu_brytaniyi?fbclid=IwAR02Hlp_RQh0rlGsDX26D8sohyV75Lx16alzikqb0UKiuSd3ADHLn7XEzXw [Accessed 5 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
18. ‘Dzhonson vidmovyv Shotlandii u referendumi pro nezalezhnist’ (2020). Yevropeiska Pravda, 14 January [online]. Available at: https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2020/01/14/7105104 [Accessed 15 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
19. Brzezinski, Z. (2009). Velikaya shakhmatnaya doska. Gospodstvo Ameriki i ego geostrategicheskie imperativy [The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives]. Moscow: International Relations. [in Russian] DOI 10.2307/1149289
20. Ross, T. (2020). Trump Attacked Boris Johnson Over Huawei in Heated Phone Call, Bloomberg, 7 February [online]. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-07/trump-attacked-uks-johnson-over-huawei-in-heated-phone-call [Accessed 25 June 2020] [in English]
21. ‘Pity po anhliisky: 7 naividchutnishykh naslidkiv vykhodu z YeS vlasne dlia Brytanii’ (2016). Novoye vremya, 24 June. Available at: https://nv.ua/ukr/publications/ pidstupnij-albion-7-najbilsh-vidchutnih-naslidkiv-dlja-britaniji-pislja-vihodu-z-jes-156274.html [Accessed 12 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
22. Brexit: 3,5 tys. brytantsiv otrymaly pasporty Belhii pislia referendumu 2016 roku [Brexit: 3.5 thousand Britons received Belgian passports after the 2016 referendum], Yevropeiska Pravda, 14 August. Available at: https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2019/08/14/7099645 [Accessed 11 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
23. Konstantynov, V. (2020). ‘Chomu London i Briussel sperechaiutsia pro torhovu uhodu’, Mirror Weekly, 26 June [online]. Available at: https://zn.ua/ukr/international/zhittja-pislja-brekzita.html [Accessed 30 June 2020] [in Ukrainian]
24. Kruhlenko, A. (2019). ‘U Niderlandy pereikhaly vzhe 100 brytanskykh kompanii. Na cherzi – shche 325’, Mirror Weekly, 28 August [online]. Available at: https://zn.ua/ukr/WORLD/britanski-kompaniyi-zalishayut-krayinu-cherez-neviznachenist-z-brexit-321820_.html [Accessed 12 April 2020] [in Ukrainian]
25. Pires, M. (2012). Defense Data: EDA participating Member States in 2010. Brussels, pp. 10, 12, 19-20, 26. [in English]
26. House of Lords. European Union Committee (2018). Brexit: Common Security and Defence Policy missions and operations. [online]. Available at: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/132/132.pdf [in English]
27. European Council (2013). David Cameron’s press conference [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/european-council-december-2013-david-camerons-press-conference [Accessed 12 April 2020] [in English]
28. ‘European defense coalition launched in Paris’ (2018). Reuters, 7 November [online]. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-Defense/european-defense-coalition-launched-in-paris-idUSKCN1NC291?il=0 [Accessed 15 May 2020] [in English]
29. Biscop, S. (2012). The UK and European defense: leading or leaving. International Affairs, Volume 88, Issue 6, pp. 1297-1313. [in English] DOI 10.1111/j.1468-2346.2012.01133.x
30. Yuzviak, R. (2020). ‘Nova model rozshyrennia YeS: halmuietsia same rozshyrennia’, Radio Svoboda, 6 February [online]. Available at: https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/jees-halmuje-svoje-rozshyrennia/30420694.html [Accessed 10 June 2020] [in Ukrainian]
31. Shapovalova, O. (2009). Yevropeiska polityka Frantsii za prezydentstva Zhaka Shyraka: Avtoref. dys. na zdobuttia nauk. stupenia kand. polit. nauk spets. 23.00.04 ‘Politychni problemy mizhnarodnykh System ta hlobalnoho rozvytku’ [European policy of France during the presidency of Jacques Chirac: extended abstract of PhD thesis in Political Science, specialty 23.00.04 ‘Political Problems of International Systems and Global Development]. Kyiv. [in Ukrainian]
32. Zarembo, K. (ed.). (2018). Nova Yevropa [New Europe]. Lviv: Staryi Lev Publishing House. [in Ukrainian]
33. ‘Brytaniia i Frantsiia zirvaly zustrich Yevrosoiuzu shchodo obrannia Trampa’ (2016). Novoye vremya, 14 November [online]. Available at: http://nv.ua/ukr/world/countries/britanija-i-frantsija-zirvali-zustrich-jevrosojuzu-shchodo-obrannja-trampa-financial-times-271596.html [Accessed 16 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
34. ‘U Velykii Brytanii nazvaly imena rosiiskykh sponsoriv partii Dzhonsona’ (2019). Fakty, 11 November [online]. Available at: https://fakty.com.ua/ua/videos/u-velykij-brytaniyi-nazvaly-imena-rosijskyh-sponsoriv-partiyi-zhonsona/?fbclid=IwAR1Z6 G5REYDw4tuDFJqEHKxCRJ75 [Accessed 12 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
35. ‘Dzhonson zustrichavsia z eks-ahentom KDB pislia otruiennia Skrypaliv, – ZMI’ (2019). Espreso, 18 November [online]. Available at: https://espreso.tv/news/2019/11/18/dzhonson_zustrichavsya_z_eks_agentom_kdb_pislya_otruyennya_skrypaliv_zmi [Accessed 15 May 2020] [in Ukrainian]
36. Mahda, Ye. (2017). Hibrydna ahresiia Rosii: uroky dlia Yevropy [Russia’s Hybrid Aggression: Lessons for Europe], Kyiv: KALAMAR. [in Ukrainian]